The 2007 hurricane season began Friday, June 1 amid predictions of an active summer and fall that could spawn as many as 17 named storms, including ten hurricanes ...
The 2007 hurricane season began Friday, June 1 amid predictions of an active summer and fall that could spawn as many as 17 named storms, including ten hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center says there is a 75 percent chance of an above-average season with 13 to 17 named storms, including seven to ten hurricanes. Forecasters say three to five of the hurricanes could be major storms ranked as Category 3 or higher. The Atlantic Basin hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
The predictions are based on a number of variables including above-normal sea surface temperatures and what forecasters call the multi-decadal signal, which indicates a 15 to 25 year period of above normal activity. This season could also be affected by the La Nina phenomenon which could encourage hurricane development. An average season generates 11 named storms including six hurricanes.
Weather experts cannot accurately forecast where hurricanes can make landfall. Therefore, the Georgia Emergency Management Agency (GEMA) cautions that Georgians should be well prepared for the hurricane season regardless of the number of storms predicted.
"It doesn't matter how many storms are predicted," says GEMA Director Charley English. "It only takes one hurricane or tropical storm to have a catastrophic impact on a community and the public needs to be responsible and be prepared."
This year has already seen one named storm: Subtropical Storm Andrea. It formed in the Atlantic in early May, having little impact along the Georgia coast except for beach erosion. Forecasters say, however, that a pre-season storm is not a harbinger of the coming year's activity.
Georgians should develop a family disaster plan beginning with an awareness of the threats posed by hurricanes, including storm surge near the coast, and high winds, flooding, thunderstorms and tornadoes hundreds of miles inland. Residents of the coast and flood-prone areas should be ready to evacuate immediately when told to do so, know where they would evacuate to, and have plans to reunify if they become separated. Families with pets should make plans in advance for their animals in the event of an evacuation.
It is also essential to maintain a disaster supplies kit, including a three-to-seven-day supply of bottled water and non-perishable food for each family member, extra clothing and bedding, personal hygiene items, medicines, a flashlight, portable radio and batteries. Most importantly, have a battery-powered, tone-activated NOAA Weather Radio to monitor severe weather forecasts and warnings.
Now is the time to check insurance coverage. Regular homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage, but special policies are available. They do not take effect, however, until 30 days after they are purchased.
"Complacency is one of our greatest enemies," says English. "A lot of people assume that since we haven't had a direct hit by a major storm in over a hundred years or haven't had a massive evacuation since 1999, there is nothing to worry about. That kind of thinking could be deadly."
While Georgia's coast has not experienced a direct hit by a major hurricane since 1898, the state has been heavily impacted by tropical weather events over the years. Most have been Gulf storms, such as Tropical Storm Alberto in 1994, which dumped 21 inches of rain on Americus in one 24-hour period and left more than 30 people dead. But according to NOAA records, a total of four Category 2 hurricanes slammed the Georgia coast between 1911 and 1979 near Savannah, resulting in 68 deaths.
Approximately 175,000 coastal Georgia residents fled their homes in 1989 in the face of Hurricane Hugo, which ultimately hit Charleston. Hurricane Floyd, which made landfall in North Carolina, threatened Georgia in 1999, triggering the evacuation of 3.5 million residents of the Atlantic coast, including 350,000 Georgians. It was the largest evacuation in American history.
Ironically, many weather forecasters say the only solution to the current drought would be a tropical event that would help to bring the more than 20 inches of rain that is needed.
For more information on the hurricane season and on severe weather preparedness, visit GEMA's Web site at http://www.gema.state.ga.us/. Other resources include the National Weather Service at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ and the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.